NIO Earnings: What to Look for From NIO

3 years ago 383

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimation EPS of -RMB0.48 (-$0.07) vs. -RMB1.15 successful Q2 FY 2020.
  • Vehicle deliveries, already announced, much than doubled YOY.
  • Revenue is expected to emergence astatine a robust pace, contempt proviso concatenation disruptions caused by the planetary semiconductor shortage.

NIO Inc. (NIO), 1 of China's fast-growing electrical conveyance makers, continues to ramp up accumulation of its premium astute electrical automobiles. The institution is truthful acold outpacing 2 of its home rivals—Xpeng Inc. (XPEV) and Li Auto Inc. (LI)—in conveyance deliveries this year. But NIO faces a fig of challenges going forward, including the ongoing worldwide shortage of semiconductor chips arsenic good arsenic imaginable stricter regulations amid a broader crackdown by the Chinese authorities connected large tech companies.

Investors volition beryllium looking to spot if NIO is continuing to amended its fiscal show contempt the assorted challenges it faces erstwhile it reports net connected August 11, 2021 for Q2 fiscal twelvemonth (FY) 2021. Analysts expect the electrical conveyance maker's nonaccomplishment per stock to constrictive considerably compared to the year-ago 4th arsenic gross continues to turn astatine a accelerated pace. Note that NIO shares referred to passim this communicative correspond NYSE-listed American depositary shares (ADS) with the ticker NIO.

Another important cardinal metric investors are focused connected is NIO's conveyance deliveries. The institution already announced its conveyance transportation totals for the three-month play that ended successful June connected July 1, 2021. It was different beardown 4th with full deliveries rising faster than analysts expected.

Shares of NIO person outperformed the broader marketplace implicit the past year. The banal started the past twelvemonth lagging the marketplace but began to outperform successful precocious August 2020, with the outperformance spread widening importantly astir mid-October. The shares past reached a highest successful the archetypal fractional of February 2021 but person fixed backmost immoderate of their gains since then. Overall, NIO's shares person provided a full instrumentality of 218.2% implicit the past year, good supra the S&P 500's full instrumentality of 31.9%.

Source: TradingView.

NIO Earnings History

NIO reported mixed results successful its Q1 FY 2021 earnings release. Its nonaccomplishment per stock was the biggest since the 2nd 4th of FY 2019, and much than 4 times larger than what analysts were expecting. Revenue, however, came successful supra estimates, rising 481.8% compared to the year-ago quarter. NIO said that merchandise request continued to beryllium beardown during the 4th but that its supply chain was inactive facing important challenges related to the planetary semiconductor shortage. The institution was forced to unopen down 1 of its factories for 5 days successful precocious March owed to the spot shortage.

In Q4 FY 2020, the electrical conveyance shaper missed some its net and gross forecasts. NIO posted different nonaccomplishment per share, albeit a importantly smaller 1 than successful the last 4th of FY 2019, portion gross grew astatine 133.2%, marking a slower gait than the somewhat supra 146% maturation recorded successful each of the erstwhile 2 quarters. The institution besides noted that its conveyance margin, a measurement of gross margin for its conveyance sales, was 17.2% successful the 4th compared to -6.0% successful the year-ago quarter.

Analysts expect NIO to station different nonaccomplishment per stock successful Q2 FY 2021. However, it is forecast to constrictive importantly compared to the 2nd 4th of FY 2020. Revenue, meanwhile, is expected to grow 123.4%, its slowest gait since Q1 FY 2020.

For full-year FY 2021, analysts are presently forecasting an yearly nonaccomplishment per stock of RMB3.16, the smallest specified nonaccomplishment successful astatine slightest 5 years. Annual revenue, connected the different hand, is expected to emergence 116.5%, its fastest gait successful astatine slightest the past 3 years.

NIO Key Stats
  Q2 2021 (FY) Q2 2020 (FY) Q2 2019 (FY)
Earnings Per Share (RMB) -0.48 (estimate) -1.15 -3.23
Revenue (RMB, billions) 8.3 (estimate)  3.7 1.5
Vehicle Deliveries 21,896 (actual) 10,330 3,550

Source: Visible AlphaNIO Inc.

The Key Metric

As mentioned above, investors are besides watching the fig of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates immoderate gross from the assorted different products and services it provides, but the bulk of gross is derived from conveyance sales.

Currently, the institution makes deliveries of 3 types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's six-seater oregon seven-seater flagship premium astute electrical SUV; the ES6, the company’s five-seater high-performance premium astute electrical SUV; and the EC6, the company’s five-seater premium electrical coupe SUV. The fig of conveyance deliveries provides an denotation of the request for NIO's vehicles arsenic good arsenic the company's quality to standard production, an quality that is analyzable by the spot shortage and different logistical challenges.

NIO has importantly ramped up its accumulation implicit the past fewer years. The institution delivered a full of 11,350 vehicles successful FY 2018. That fig roseate 81.2% successful FY 2019 and different 112.6% successful FY 2020 to scope a full of 43,730 yearly conveyance deliveries.

The gait of transportation maturation accelerated importantly successful the archetypal 4th of FY 2021, with deliveries rising 422.7% year-over-year (YOY). NIO past announced astatine the opening of July its conveyance deliveries for Q2 FY 2021. Total deliveries roseate 111.9% compared to the year-ago quarter, beating analysts' forecasts. For full-year FY 2021, analysts expect yearly conveyance deliveries to much than treble to a full of 89,810.

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  2. CNBC. "Nio Delivered Fewer Cars Than Xpeng and Li Auto did successful July." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  3. CNN. "SEC Temporarily Halts Approvals of New Chinese IPOs After Didi Debacle." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  4. CNBC. "Chinese Electric Car Start-Up Nio Shuts Factory for 5 Days owed to Global Chip Shortage." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  5. NIO Inc. "NIO Inc. to Report Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results connected Wednesday, August 11, 2021." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  6. Visible Alpha. "Financial Data." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  7. NIO Inc. "NIO Inc. Provides June and Second Quarter 2021 Delivery Update." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  8. NIO Inc. "NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited First Quarter 2021 Financial Results." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  9. NIO Inc. "NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results." Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

  10. NIO Inc. "Form 20-F for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2020," Page 100. Accessed Aug. 10, 2021.

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