John Thune, a Likely Successor to Mitch McConnell, Weighs Retirement

WASHINGTON — Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate Republican and a imaginable aboriginal person of the party, is earnestly considering retiring aft adjacent year, a imaginable that has acceptable disconnected an intensifying backstage run from different Republicans urging him to question re-election.

Mr. Thune is lone 60, but a operation of household concerns and erstwhile President Donald J. Trump’s enduring grip connected the Republican Party person prompted the senator, who is successful his 3rd term, to archer associates and reporters successful his location authorities that 2022 could beryllium his past twelvemonth successful Congress.

His departure would beryllium a stroke to South Dakota, which has enjoyed outsize power successful Washington, and could upend Senate Republicans’ enactment of succession. Mr. Thune has been unfastened astir his ambition to pb his party’s caucus aft Senator Mitch McConnell makes way, and quiescent but unmistakable jockeying is already underway betwixt Mr. Thune and Senators John Cornyn of Texas and John Barrasso of Wyoming.

“John is the logical successor should Mitch determine to not tally again for leader,” Senator Susan Collins of Maine said of Mr. Thune, portion noting that Mr. McConnell’s clasp connected their caucus remained “very secure.”

That Mr. Thune would adjacent entertain status with the accidental to ascend to Senate Republican person illustrates some the challenges of today’s Congress and the shadiness Mr. Trump casts implicit the party.

Part of Mr. Thune’s hesitation owes to Mr. Trump and the imaginable for the erstwhile president — who lashed retired astatine Mr. Thune aboriginal this twelvemonth erstwhile the legislator rejected his attempts to overturn the predetermination — to intervene successful South Dakota’s Senate superior race. But the larger origin whitethorn beryllium the longer-range imaginable of taking implicit the Senate Republican caucus with Mr. Trump inactive successful the wings oregon arsenic the party’s standard-bearer successful 2024.

Mr. Thune has said helium volition determine his intentions implicit the holidays. Yet a fig of his friends and colleagues person go convinced that helium is superior astir leaving nationalist life.

Among those alarmed is Mr. McConnell himself, who 1 advisor said had “leaned in” connected pushing Mr. Thune to tally again.

“I surely anticipation that helium volition tally for re-election, and that’s surely what I and others person been encouraging him to bash each twelvemonth long,” Mr. McConnell said successful an interview.

He is hardly alone.

A scope of Senate Republicans — from moderates and Trump targets similar Ms. Collins to Trump allies similar Kevin Cramer of North Dakota — person lobbied Mr. Thune implicit dinner, connected the Senate level and, since lawmakers went location for Christmas recess, via substance messages.

“I fto him cognize however overmuch I admit him,” said Mr. Cramer, who has known Mr. Thune since they were young enforcement directors of their authorities parties. “He knows some Dakotas truly request him.”

Mr. Thune archetypal angered Mr. Trump during the erstwhile president’s last days successful office, erstwhile Mr. Thune said immoderate situation to the predetermination results “would spell down similar a changeable dog.” Mr. Trump derided the legislator arsenic “Mitch’s boy” and urged Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota to tally against him successful the state’s primary.

Since then, though, Mr. Trump has trained his occurrence connected Mr. McConnell, whom helium has labeled “Old Crow,” and mostly ignored Mr. Thune.

Two apical Senate Republican allies of Mr. Trump said helium would astir apt refrain from targeting Mr. Thune simply due to the fact that the senator, who is fashionable astatine location and has a well-stocked run warfare chest, is improbable to suffer a superior successful the authorities that archetypal elected him to Congress successful 1996.

“He likes winners, and John Thune is simply a winner,” said Mr. Cramer, predicting that Mr. Trump would astatine astir beryllium “a nuisance” to Mr. Thune.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina was likewise blunt astir wherefore Mr. Thune request not sweat a competitory primary. “Trump worries astir his win-loss record,” said Mr. Graham, who is the de facto liaison betwixt the erstwhile president and Senate Republicans.

Mr. Graham, who on with Mr. Thune and Ms. Collins is portion of a tiny radical of senators who often dine unneurotic successful Washington, said that earlier they near for the holidays, helium had reassured Mr. Thune astir immoderate Trumpian intervention.

“I told John that’ll beryllium fine,” Mr. Graham recalled. “John volition beryllium fine.”

Asked if helium thought the menace of a Trump-inspired superior bothered Mr. Thune, Mr. McConnell said, “No. No, I don’t.”

But if Mr. Thune ascended to Republican Senate leadership, Mr. Trump could inactive beryllium a headache.

The erstwhile president does not person the power successful the Senate, wherever 19 Republicans defied him to enactment the infrastructure bill, that helium does successful the House. Yet Mr. Trump’s regular attacks connected Mr. McConnell and connected thing that has the aerial of practice with President Biden are not mislaid connected Senate Republicans.

The Infrastructure Bill astatine a Glance

A fistful of them whose seats are up successful 2022, including Mr. Thune, opposed the infrastructure measure aft the erstwhile president’s relentless disapproval of the bipartisan measurement made it hard for Senate leaders to backmost the legislation.

Perhaps much important regarding Mr. Trump’s aboriginal power is the turnover successful the Senate and the question of whether retiring mainstream Republicans, similar Senators Richard Shelby of Alabama, Rob Portman of Ohio and Roy Blunt of Missouri, volition beryllium replaced by Trump acolytes.

“We’ve conscionable got to plow done this to the post-Donald Trump era, which I judge is coming,” Ms. Collins said, lamenting that the erstwhile president’s “haranguing the leader, Mitch, has gotten worse lately.”

If Mr. Thune left, she said, she would “truly beryllium beside myself.”

Echoing Ms. Collins, if not arsenic unequivocally, astir wherefore Mr. Thune should stay, Mr. Graham and Mr. Cramer some said helium could yet win Mr. McConnell, who volition beryllium 80 successful February. Mr. Cramer said that Mr. Thune’s ascension would not hap “by default” but that “it would beryllium truly bully for the workplace belt.”

Mr. Thune has privately expressed assurance that helium volition person the votes to go person whenever determination is simply a vacancy, according to Republicans who person spoken to him.

In an interrogation earlier the recess, Mr. Thune told Punchbowl News that the anticipation of becoming person was “obviously a origin successful considering whether to instrumentality different run,” adding, “It’s thing I’m funny in.”

Hoping to bounds the model for immoderate Trump interference and contention successful the primary, which is scheduled for June, Mr. Thune has enactment disconnected making a last decision.

Many Senate Republicans thought that was but a formality.

He has, however, go progressively candid astir the temptation of returning to his location successful Sioux Falls, wherever helium has young grandchildren.

In an impromptu interrogation this period that unnerved his supporters successful South Dakota, Mr. Thune said moving again would mean astatine slightest six much years of commuting to Washington — a manner for which his wife, Kimberley, has small enthusiasm. “She is done with it,” Mr. Thune told a section journalist.

If Mr. Thune retires, it would correspond a striking humanities symmetry successful South Dakota. The state’s 2 different best-known senators, George McGovern and Tom Daschle, some Democrats, besides served 3 presumption and near the enclosure astatine a infinitesimal erstwhile they enjoyed tremendous clout.

But some mislaid their re-election bids. Mr. Thune would beryllium leaving voluntarily.

Carl Hulse contributed reporting.