DocuSign stock craters toward worst day on record, but analyst says ‘damage is essentially done’

The banal has present dropped 36% twelvemonth to date, aft astir tripling (up 200%) successful 2020. In comparison, the S&P 500 scale SPX, -1.11% has gained rallied 21% this twelvemonth aft climbing 16% past year.

The company’s study served arsenic “a bully reminder that adjacent outstanding companies instrumentality their proverbial oculus disconnected the income ball,” wrote Needham expert Scott Berg successful a enactment downgrading DocuSign’s banal to clasp from buy. While DocuSign announced that it would beryllium changing immoderate elements of its income organization, Berg said helium has recovered that “fixing these income issues often requires respective quarters.”

Citi Research expert Tyler Radke wrote that DocuSign delivered “one of the biggest SaaS [software-as-a-service] whiffs successful caller representation with full billings maturation of 28% importantly beneath [the] 34% guide” during the fiscal 3rd quarter. DocuSign’s billings outlook for the fiscal 4th fourth was 22% astatine the midpoint, which came successful importantly beneath the 32% statement fig Radke cited successful his enactment to clients.

“With a mostly resilient show vs [work-from-home] peers implicit the past 2 quarters, we are amazed that DOCU is seeing important lawsuit behavior/execution issues cropping up now, and successful this magnitude,” helium continued.

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Radke called the study a “thesis shifter,” though helium kept his bargain standing connected the stock, arguing that DocuSign has a “first-mover advantage” successful its domain and that determination are “few signs” that radical are shifting backmost to manual agreements. He chopped his people terms to $231 from $389.

Evercore ISI expert Kirk Materne wrote that portion DocuSign faced hard comparisons successful its astir caller quarter, the institution “simply misread the marketplace successful presumption of request and that led to a faster than expected deceleration successful billings growth.”

But the stock’s crisp determination downward indicates that “the harm is fundamentally done arsenic it relates to the quarter,” helium wrote. Further, aft speaking with DocuSign’s absorption team, Materne believes that DocuSign’s fiscal fourth-quarter billing outlook “assumes nary betterment successful request gen[eration] vs. 3Q, which could beryllium conservative.”

While helium called the stock’s selloff “a spot overdone,” Materne admitted that “the world is this banal conscionable went from a communicative wherever investors were reasoning astir durable maturation being successful the 30%’s to being successful the 20%’s and that’s going to make a beauteous worldly de-rate.”

He chopped his terms people to $200 from $320, penning that “until DOCU can amusement that it tin generate, not conscionable fulfill, request connected a regular basis, the aggregate is capped.” Materne kept an outperform standing connected the stock, citing the semipermanent imaginable of e-signature exertion particularly successful markets similar authorities wherever DocuSign is “very early” successful its penetration.

DocuSign shares are disconnected astir 52% from their September closing precocious of $310.05.